Eskom says the power system remains vulnerable after an intensive maintenance cycle with the latest delays in returning generating units falling within high-risk scenarios flagged in its Winter 2025 Outlook.
The utility reinstated evening Stage 2 load shedding this week following setbacks in bringing 3 120 MW of planned maintenance capacity back online, compounded by 1 385 MW lost to unplanned breakdowns. The combined outage pushed unavailable capacity beyond 13 000 MW.
“We are emerging from an intensive maintenance cycle, which is essential for long-term reliability but temporarily reduces system flexibility and resilience,” said Eskom’s Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane.
The return to load shedding comes just a week after Eskom’s projection of a “relatively stable winter” based on expected generation availability of 29 000 MW and reduced reliance on open-cycle gas turbines. Eskom had pointed to the return of Kusile Unit 6 and remaining Medupi units as key to unlocking an additional 2 500 MW in capacity this winter.
The return to load shedding suggests the system remains highly sensitive to delays and breakdowns – a vulnerability Eskom acknowledged in its Winter 2025 Outlook, which warned that “any slippage in the return of units from planned maintenance or increase in unplanned losses will elevate the risk of load shedding”.
However, this is a “short-term” setback being addressed at senior level, said Marokane. “Our new Operational Excellence Programme is key to restoring performance. We are reinforcing oversight, strengthening accountability and aligning service providers with stricter performance standards.”
Despite the disruption, Marokane said year-on-year load shedding incidents dropped and structural improvements to the generation fleet are continuing.
