New data from a survey of more than 2 000 businesses and home owners shows that the strongest force behind solar adoption is no longer load shedding but the need to curb rising electricity costs.
The survey was conducted by Jaltech and the findings were presented during a webinar hosted by Jaltech Partner Jonty Sacks on November 25. Sacks said Eskom’s next tariff increase is expected to range between 10% and 15%, following the National Energy Regulator of South Africa’s announcement of a material error in its tariff calculations. With grid costs rising faster than expected, the survey indicates that 79% of businesses with solar are already experiencing bill reductions and 97% of all solar users report satisfaction with their systems.
“If Eskom was to raise fixed charges significantly, it could negate solar savings,” Sacks warned although he believes this scenario is unlikely, noting the risk of legal disputes and further customer defection from the grid.
The data shows a clear shift in solar economics with 84% of installations in the past year driven primarily by electricity cost reduction. Falling technology costs are reinforcing this trend: Sacks said battery prices have dropped by roughly 30% this year, expanding opportunities for energy arbitrage.
“Data from our survey shows many farmers currently pay between R3,50 and R4,00 per kWh while power purchase agreement (PPA)-delivered solar can cost around R1,80 per kWh,” he noted. “Solar is now undercutting grid electricity prices by up to 50%.”
Persistent tariff hikes and improving technologies are accelerating rooftop photovoltaic penetration with 72-78% of non-solar users indicating they plan to adopt solar within the next 12 months, Sacks added. Reductions in Section 12BA incentives are pushing more users towards financed models such as PPAs, rentals and subscriptions while concerns about tariff restructuring highlight future risks and opportunities for distributed generation.
“Energy management and artificial intelligence-based systems can deliver 20-30% additional efficiency improvements, further enhancing cost avoidance for consumers,” Sacks said.
