Eskom’s summer outlook highlights improved generation performance and the planned end of structural load shedding, supported by National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA) work to expand grid capacity for new generation. However, Energy Analyst Chris Yelland warns that these operational gains may not address deeper structural issues that could affect South Africa’s energy transition.
During the summer outlook briefing at the beginning of September, Eskom leadership reported progress on several fronts including the expected end of structural load shedding, improved generation performance across key power stations and transmission expansion planning. The NTCSA is currently working on the Transmission Development Plan to connect 56 GW of new generation capacity with 34 GW already in the connection queue. These developments, if realised, could accelerate private renewable projects by giving developers confidence that future grid access will be available.
Despite these advances, Yelland notes that Eskom’s internal dynamics may slow reform and limit market liberalisation. He describes two broad forces within the utility:
- Those advocating for reform and unbundling
- Others who are more cautious about change
“There are what I would call progressive forces who are looking at market liberalisation and structural reform within Eskom,” he says. “But there are also groups that are more cautious and resistant to these changes. They see market reform as risky and disruptive, and they are concerned about competition and unbundling.”
Yelland says there are instances where Eskom appears to support government policy publicly, while internal actions may slow down implementation. As an example, he points to the ongoing court dispute between NERSA and Eskom over trading licences, which he says creates uncertainty for developers and causes delays.
He also raises concerns about the NTCSA’s independence. “As a subsidiary of Eskom Holdings, it is not fully independent from the country’s largest generator,” Yelland says. He notes that this structure may lead to conflicts of interest around grid access and dispatch.
Questions remain about whether transmission assets will be transferred to the NTCSA or leased from Eskom.
“If the assets remain with Eskom and the NTCSA is effectively renting them, it won’t have the asset base needed to raise capital and invest in the grid,” Yelland explains. “This could affect the rollout of new transmission lines required to connect renewable energy projects.”
