A record wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects coming online this decade is expected to transform global gas trade and improve affordability for emerging markets, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Gas 2025 outlook released in October.
The report forecasts that around 300 billion cubic metres of new LNG export capacity will be added by 2030 – primarily from the United States and Qatar – equivalent to a one-third increase in global supply. The IEA says this “LNG wave” will enhance energy security and could make gas more accessible to price-sensitive markets in Asia and Africa, provided infrastructure expands in step with supply.
Global gas demand is expected to rise 9% by 2030, driven by industrial and power sector growth in Asia and the Middle East. The agency notes that additional LNG capacity could moderate prices but warns that weaker macroeconomic conditions or slower infrastructure rollout may limit demand response.
For South Africa, where gas-to-power procurement and LNG import terminals remain in planning stages, the IEA’s projections suggest a potential window for more competitive import pricing later in the decade as supply expands and contract flexibility improves.
However, domestic progress towards a gas-to-power market has slowed following the Supreme Court of Appeal ruling that halted Eskom’s 3 000 MW gas project, stalling implementation of South Africa’s broader gas roadmap. According to the report, countries with delayed infrastructure or regulatory uncertainty risk missing out on the next phase of cost-competitive gas supply.
