South Africa’s renewable energy investment landscape is being shaped by rising private-sector activity, local manufacturing ambitions and persistent grid constraints, according to GreenCape’s 2025 Green Economy Market Intelligence Report.
The non-profit has identified large-scale private generation and the localisation of renewable energy component manufacturing as the most significant opportunities in the country’s green economy. “We’re seeing strong momentum in private power purchase agreements and wheeling arrangements,” the report says.
An estimated 80 GW of large-scale renewable energy generation is currently under development.
By 2030, private developments are projected to add 6 GW in solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity and 3,5 GW in wind, the report finds. However, ongoing grid constraints and uncertainty about the unbundling of Eskom’s generation, transmission and distribution arms are cited as key barriers to delivery.
Researchers noted that, once these systemic issues are addressed, investment activity is expected to accelerate. They pointed to the South African government’s localisation strategy – supported by incentives – as a driver of industrial investment in component manufacturing, particularly for solar panels and wind turbine parts.
In distributed energy markets, the growth of embedded solar PV is expected to stabilise as load shedding eases. By contrast, behind-the-meter battery storage is projected to expand by 2 GWh, valued at roughly R10 billion, by 2030.
The report also notes the electric vehicle (EV) sector is a longer-term investment area. “Electrification of last-mile delivery fleets, buses and minibus taxis presents the highest potential for near-term EV sales,” the report states. While EV adoption in the passenger market is currently restricted to high-end models, researchers anticipate that the segment could grow to 21 100 vehicles worth R13,9 billion by 2030.
