Global coal demand is expected to remain near record highs through 2025 and 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned. This comes as Eskom recently emphasised its revised Just Energy Transition strategy aimed at reducing coal dependence.
In its Coal Mid-Year Update 2025 report, the IEA states that “global coal demand remains near its historical high of over 8,6 billion tonnes in 2023” and will “hover around this level through 2026”. The agency’s forecast indicates a plateau rather than a downturn despite record additions of renewable energy.
“The world’s consumption of coal is not falling,” the IEA said. “After a dip in 2020 due to the COVID-19 crisis, coal demand rebounded strongly in 2021 and has remained at record highs since 2022.”
Coal-fired power generation is expected to decline in advanced economies due to strong growth in renewables and weak or declining electricity demand but these reductions are offset by continuing growth in emerging and developing economies, according to the update. In 2023, China accounted for 54% of global coal demand, India 13% and Southeast Asia 5%.
While the IEA sees signs of structural change in advanced economies, including record reductions in coal use in the United States and the European Union, it states that these declines are not yet sufficient to bring down global totals.
