Renewable energy is set to surpass coal as the world’s largest source of electricity by 2026 at the latest, and potentially as early as 2025, depending on weather conditions and fuel price trends, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its Electricity Mid-Year update, the IEA projects global electricity demand will rise by 3,3% this year. While this marks a slowdown from 4,4% growth in 2024, it remains well above the 2,6% average recorded between 2015 and 2023.
Renewables, particularly solar PV and wind energy, are expected to cover 90% of this demand in 2025. Nuclear and gas-fired power stations are set to reach record highs this year as well.
“The strong expansion of renewables and nuclear is steadily reshaping electricity markets in many regions,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. “However, this must be matched by greater investment in grids, storage and other sources of flexibility to ensure power systems can meet the growing demand securely and affordably,” he warned.
Coal’s share of the global energy mix will drop to 33% for the first time in a century. As a result of this, carbon emissions are expected to plateau this year and slightly decrease in 2026.
