South Africa and Egypt remain Africa’s largest solar markets in absolute terms but some of the continent’s most advanced solar power systems are emerging in far smaller and island-based grids, according to new data from the Africa Solar Outlook 2026 published by the African Solar Industry Association (AFSIA).
Presented during a webinar on January 14 by AFSIA Chief Executive John van Zuylen, the outlook shows South Africa and Egypt together account for the majority of Africa’s grid-connected solar capacity driven by utility-scale procurement programmes, commercial and industrial markets and, increasingly, integrated storage projects. Both countries are described as critical to Africa’s long-term decarbonisation trajectory.
However, when measured by solar penetration, per-capita deployment and system share, several smaller and island systems rank among the continent’s strongest performers.
According to the data, Cape Verde now sources more than 20% of its electricity from solar while Mauritius and Seychelles each generate close to 10% of national electricity demand from solar – well above the African average.
AFSIA attributes this performance primarily to system economics and grid structure. Island systems are typically heavily dependent on imported diesel with generation costs often exceeding US$200/MWh (about R3 234/MWh), making solar – particularly when paired with storage – immediately cost-competitive. The smaller size of these grids also means that new solar capacity translates more quickly into visible system-level impact.
“The data challenges the assumption that scale determines solar success,” Van Zuylen said. “Smaller systems often integrate solar faster because they face fewer legacy constraints and can adapt operational rules more rapidly. In many cases, the economics are clearer and the system response is faster.”
AFSIA notes that these island markets are already grappling with issues that larger African power systems are likely to face in the coming years including variability management, reserve requirements and the growing role of energy storage in maintaining reliability.
In island systems, storage is increasingly procured as a system-level asset rather than a project-specific add-on, reflecting the need to manage high solar penetration across the entire grid.
The outlook argues that the experience of these smaller markets offers practical lessons for larger systems as solar deployment accelerates across the continent. As capacity expands, AFSIA suggests success will be determined less by headline megawatt additions and more by system readiness, operational planning and flexibility.
