by Roger Lilley, Energize

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa told a media briefing today (Tuesday 12 December 2023) that the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) had authorised the construction of a 2500 MW nuclear power station.

That statement is very interesting because the National Nuclear Regulator (NNR), not NERSA, has to issue a nuclear energy generating licence, and according to Eskom, the NNR had given the power utility until March 2024 to provide the appropriate information needed by the NNR to reach a decision regarding the construction of a new nuclear power plant.

Although a new nuclear power station had been proposed before, it was not included in the Department of Mineral Resource and Energy’s (DMRE’s) Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) issued in October 2019. The only nuclear power included in that plan relates to the 1800 MW from Eskom’s existing Koeberg nuclear power plant. The DMRE, in its proposal some years ago, suggested various locations for the siting of new power plant, with Thyspunt in the Western Cape being the one most often mentioned.

Ramokgopa’s call for a new nuclear plant is to ensure what he calls “energy sovereignty”. One wonders if he is hedging his bets in case the Koeberg nuclear power station is not granted a new operating licence in 2024 and has to be shut down. The operating licence for Koeberg’s two 900 MW Generation II units expires in July 2024. Eskom has been trying to get permission to extend the life of these two units by another 20 years, claiming that it needs the 1800 MW to help meet demand. However, serious concerns have been raised regarding the safety and reliability of these units were they to be operated for many more years.

The concrete of the containment buildings is said to be crumbling due to its exposure to sea air and coastal weather. Apparently, the contractor that built the containment buildings never anticipated the concrete to weaken as quickly it has. Apparently, because of the crumbling concrete, water has penetrated to the steel reinforcing and is causing that to corrode. Experts say that this would weaken the entire structure so that should a fire or explosion occur withing the unit, the containment buildings would not be able to prevent possible nuclear radiation leaks into the environment.

Since the power station is only 27 km away from the sprawling City of Cape Town and its environs, such a radiation leak would be catastrophic were it to occur.

Despite numerous requests, Eskom has not allowed the independent media to visit the site and see the state of the buildings for themselves. Instead, the media was told that Eskom experts had inspected that buildings and that they (the media) could assure the public that there was no serious damage to the buildings. It was also reported that the exclusion zone was extended to ensure photographs of the buildings could not be taken from ships at sea.

But perhaps Ramokgopa is simply trying to be seen as someone who has a solution to end load shedding. This, of course, is because he knows that load shedding under ANC rule has weakened voters’ confidence in the party. The upcoming election will no doubt reveal just how little trust the electorate has in the party.

So now, it seems, he has decided that the only way to end load shedding is to build new power plants. Finally, he has accepted that the old, dirty, unreliable coal-fired power stations in Eskom’s fleet can no longer be relied upon to provide South Africa with an affordable, reliable source of electricity.

Nonsensical statements made at the media briefing

However, according to the NGO Koeberg Alert Alliance (KAA), so much nonsense was spoken at the briefing that the event was a complete waste of time.

Examples of the nonsense include Ramokgopa’s statement that “nuclear is the cheapest” form of electricity generation. This statement was obviously based on Eskom’s figures of the actual running cost, per kWh, of Koeberg when both units were running efficiently. Since Koeberg is 40 years old and the capital costs have long been covered, electricity from Koeberg is very cheap. But a new nuclear power plant would require enormous capital which Treasury would have to borrow. Servicing the interest alone would make electricity from a new nuclear power station incredibly expensive.

Another speaker at the briefing said that the expected capital cost of a new nuclear build was “2100 to 7500 per kWh”. Not only did he forget to mention what currency this was in, he also apparently does not understand the difference between kWh and kW. It seems he was trying to quote the US dollar price per kW of capacity. Respected international studies such as the Lazard 2023 report put this figure at US$8475 to $13 925 per kW.

Thus, to build a 2500 MW nuclear power plant in South Africa would cost somewhere between US$21-billion (about R400-billion) and $35-billion (about R700-billion) before interest and other costs. Furthermore, according to the DMRE’s Deputy Director General Zizamele Mbambo it would take another ten to twelve years to build – or longer if we remember how long it took Eskom’s recent new-build power stations Medupi and Kusile to be built.

Since the economy is already in a bad way, partly because of the scourge of load shedding, one wonders how the country would manage to pay for a massive new nuclear power plant.

New nuclear power would take so long to build, and so much can go wrong. One only has to consider Eskom’s attempts to refurbish Koeberg, which it said would take five months per unit, and now is set to take at least 18 months per unit.

To start committing large amounts of money now as well as interest payments on something that might be ready in ten- or twelve-years’ time, when the whole energy landscape is likely to be completely different, is simply irrational. Experience with mega projects such as Medupi has shown that these projects always go way over schedule and way over budget so twelve years is also an extremely optimistic estimate.

The timing of the announcement is also puzzling. The latest revision of the IRP is about to be released for public comment. That might contain no new nuclear power, or if it does, it might be removed after input during the public consultation process.

Why was this announcement made now?

It seems there were three reasons for the announcement to be made at this time:

• An election is looming. Minister Ramokgopa wanted to find something which can appear to be a positive announcement.
• This is an announcement of a gravy train – it does not matter if finance is found for this new nuclear build, or if it is ever actually built. There will now be millions available for various consultants and legal firms to assist with composing the RFP, processing responses, etc. As an example, in 2016 while ‘preparing’ for the new nuclear build (which never materialised), the DMRE spent R213-million on consultants.
• It seems to be an attempt to distract the media and civil society from other goings on in the energy sector, which are frequently slipped through over the December break.

The Minister seems to be unwilling – or unable to accept the reality that new renewable energy capacity and storage solutions are progressing rapidly now that NERSA approval is no longer required for these projects. Not only would South Africa struggle to raise the necessary finance given its junk status in the international credit market, but 2500 MW would be insignificant by the time such a project was ever completed.

The media briefing was therefore a waste of time. The things the minister and DMRE officials said at the briefing should be discounted as nothing more than wishful thinking at best, and deliberate disinformation at worst.