Eskom has warned that delays in delivering new generation capacity under the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019 are now a central risk to South Africa’s long-term energy security with only about half of planned capacity brought online to date.
The utility raised the concern during a briefing to Parliament’s Portfolio Committee on Electricity and Energy on April 29 when it outlined system performance and the outlook to 2030.
Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane said execution challenges in bringing new projects online are now the key constraint.
“When you look at the IRP 2019 requirements, only 50% of that has materialised,” Marokane said. “Execution in bringing new projects online remains a challenge.”
Eskom indicated that this shortfall is becoming increasingly significant as the country moves ahead with the planned retirement of ageing coal-fired generation.
“The system must avoid a scenario where the country decommissions itself into energy insecurity,” Marokane said.
The utility highlighted that around 8 GW of coal capacity is expected to be decommissioned by 2030 while replacement capacity, particularly firm and dispatchable generation, remains constrained.
Eskom said it is assessing “multiple scenarios” and potential adjustments to decommissioning schedules to manage the risk.
Delays in gas-to-power projects are adding further pressure to timelines. Eskom pointed to setbacks in the Richards Bay gas programme, where environmental approvals have been overturned, requiring the process to be redone.
The utility also cautioned that constraints in dispatchable capacity could limit the expansion of renewable energy, noting that higher levels of variable generation increase the need for firm capacity to maintain system stability.
The warning comes as Eskom reported improved operational performance, including more than 300 consecutive days without load shedding and a recovery in generation availability.
However, the utility indicated that current system stability does not remove longer-term risks with delivery of new capacity and coordination across the value chain now critical to sustaining supply security through to 2030.
