The market for green-tech energy minerals like copper and cobalt has contracted to levels last seen before the Covid-19 pandemic, with likely permutations for the bulk ore logistics sector expected to follow.
According to the “Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024” compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the market for critical minerals contracted 10% in 2023.
In US dollar terms it represents a US$325-billion decrease in global demand.
The report found that last year’s decreases were particularly evident in the prices of lithium and cobalt, falling by 75% and 30% respectively.
Nickel and graphite prices also plunged by 45%.
Market analysis indicates a lingering impact from “long Covid”, reflected in a market over-correction. Investment in critical minerals and exploration services is experiencing general increases of 10% and 15%. These figures, though, show a slowing effect compared to sector finance from 2022.
According to IEA’s own assessment, demand levels are falling short of net-zero production targets for 2035, namely 70% for copper and 50% for lithium.
Provided that no black swan events disrupt world trade and industrial manufacturing, the IEA reports that critical minerals mining and demand are set to double by 2040 to US$770 billion.
To fight global warming by meeting 1,5-degree Celsius targets by 2040, investment and exploration services spending in critical minerals is expected to cost around US$800bn.
