While decentralisation has opened new pathways to energy access across Africa, experts caution that, where national grids already exist, centralised systems remain the most affordable and efficient foundation for electrification. They argue that the continent’s energy future depends not on abandoning the grid but on integrating decentralised solutions to strengthen resilience and extend access to unserved areas.
This perspective emerged during a panel discussion on energy security through decentralisation: strategies for a resilient future during Solar & Storage Live at the Cape Town International Convention Centre last week.
Centralised affordability, decentralised reach
“Decentralisation is an African trend,” said Frank Spencer, CEO of SBG.Earth, who moderated the session. “In recent years, we’ve seen thousands of off-grid mini grids built across Africa and hundreds of thousands of small solar home systems installed while imports of solar modules and batteries have surged.”
Mary Haw, Manager: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Facilitation for the City of Cape Town, said electrifying through the grid remains the most affordable option. “Creating a micro grid scenario where it’s not appropriate does not work from a cost perspective. We must balance that cost with the technology options available,” she said.
Privately owned photovoltaic generation in South Africa has grown rapidly over the past two years. “Industry has added about 4 GW of solar for self-generation, resulting in a 20% decrease in peak power demand compared with a few years ago,” said François Rozon, Postdoctoral Fellow and Senior Researcher at Stellenbosch University’s Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies.
Haw noted that, in Cape Town, most mini grid systems are grid-tied. “Cape Town has 1 200 approved small-scale embedded generation systems, totalling almost 230 MVA,” she said.
Conditions differ elsewhere on the continent where off-grid micro grids remain more expensive but play an essential role in socio-economic development through agricultural and other productive uses, Rozon added.
Nigeria’s pragmatic approach
With a population exceeding 230 million, meeting national energy demand remains a major challenge in Nigeria, said Joseph Adetuberu, Head of Commercial Operations at Heirs Energies. Last year, Nigeria licensed more than 200 off-grid mini grid operators and added 82 MW of decentralised generation capacity.
He said large solar farms, common in South Africa, are not a practical option in Nigeria due to land constraints. “What we need in Nigeria, and across Africa, is to expand all sources of energy without discriminating against gas, coal or renewables,” he said. “The goal is energy access for the 600 million Africans still without electricity. Once access is achieved, we can then start scaling down those resources that prove less beneficial.”
Adetuberu also highlighted the strategic role of liquefied (LNG) and compressed natural gas (CNG). “LNG can be transported more than 600 km and CNG about 300 km. From an economic perspective, the critical question is how many businesses this can catalyse. That’s the real power of electricity,” he said.
Avoiding the ‘utility death spiral’
The panel also debated the risk of a utility death spiral where wealthier customers disconnect from the grid. “It’s not efficient to become an island,” Haw cautioned. “It’s more expensive, requires additional technology and prevents participation in dynamic tariffs, time-of-use integration, and the buying and selling of energy at different scales. The way forward is to design incentives and financial packages that encourage major customers to remain on the grid. As we move towards a more distributed network scenario, we need to be more community-minded.”
Adetuberu agreed that isolation is not in the greater public interest. “Large contributors stabilise the grid and support its tariff structure. Grids are sustained primarily by manufacturing companies and other major consumers with consistent load profiles. We should therefore strategically discourage the private sector from disconnecting,” he said. Policy frameworks could reinforce grid sustainability – for example, by requiring producers generating above a certain threshold to contribute to the state, he added.
Haw said there are strong incentives to remain grid-connected. “Cape Town offers attractive feed-in tariffs and has streamlined its application process. We’re now processing over 640 applications a month – up from 120 previously. The next step is to create incentives and financial packages that encourage large commercial customers to stay on the grid and support ancillary services,” she said.
