A new report from Ember, Global Electricity Review 2023, shows that the use of coal, oil and gas to produce electricity is expected to fall in 2023. This would mark the first year to see a decline in the use of fossil fuels to generate electricity, outside of a global recession or pandemic.
The report’s lead author, Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, says the world has reached the “beginning of the end of the fossil age,” and that it is now entering the “clean power era”.
"In this decisive decade for the climate, it is the beginning of the end of the fossil age. We are entering the clean power era. The stage is set for wind and solar to achieve a meteoric rise to the top. Clean electricity will reshape the global economy, from transport to industry and beyond".
Ember analysed data from 78 countries representing 93% of global demand for electricity, for the fourth edition of its annual review. Nearly 40% of global electricity is now powered by renewables and nuclear energy, marking a new record high, according to the report.
The report shows that wind- and solar-generated electricity made up 12% of global energy generation in 2022, up from 10% the previous year. Solar energy was the fastest-growing source of electricity in 2022 for the 18th year in a row, rising by 24% compared to the previous year. Wind generation increased by 17%.
Ember forecasts that in 2023, clean energy will be able to meet the total growth in electricity demand.
"A new era of falling fossil emissions means the coal power phasedown will happen, and the end of gas power growth is now within sight. Change is coming fast. However, it all depends on the actions taken now by governments, businesses and citizens to put the world on a pathway to clean power by 2040." - Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka
Fossil fuels still dominate, however. Coal is still the single largest source of primary energy for electricity generation, accounting for 36% of global electricity production in 2022. This is because overall demand for electricity rose, and not all of it was met from renewable sources. But Ember forecasts that 2022 will come to mark a “peak” in levels of atmospheric pollution from electricity generation, and the final year of fossil power growth.
The report shows that growth alone in wind and solar generation (+557 TWh) met 80% of global electricity demand growth in 2022 (+694 TWh). Clean power growth is likely to exceed electricity demand growth in 2023; this would be the first year for this to happen outside of a recession. With average growth in electricity demand and clean power, Ember forecasts that 2023 will see a small fall in fossil generation (-47 TWh, -0,3%), with greater decreases in subsequent years as wind and solar power production grows further.
